18/09 free picks and infos

England Championship
QPR - Brighton 1 @1.91 (bet365)  FT 0-0 lost
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/championship-2013-2014/qpr-brighton-zNb655Ai/
imo QPR have best team in this league , if you look at their team you will probably agree with me that QPR have better team than some Premier League's sides ...

they have very good players with big experience in england premier league and other top leagues , here are; they have two good gks Julio Cesar and Green , in defence they have Onuoha , Simpson , Dunne , Assou Ekotto (new player from Tottenham) , Shaun Wright-Phillips , Jenas , Niko Kranjcar(new player) ....
the only thing which i dont like in QPR is attacking line up they have old Zamora and Johnson who are not in best form. Hoilett and Austin are here , I like Austin if he get some good passes from midiflers today he will score for sure.

last season Austin score 24 goals in Championship!!!
my others picks are Austin to score @2.25 (bet365) or Zamora to score @3.10 (bet365)
zamora today simply must score if he want to be in first line up ..

Brighton will be very weak in attack today!! strikers Hoskins(att 0/0) and last season top scorer Mackail Smith(att 29/11) are long term injured , new missing is [one of my favourites strikers] Ulloa(att 6/4 top scorer) , he is suspended!!! Andrea Orlandi(mf 2/0) and Liam Bridcutt(mf 1/0) are also out
http://sqmagazine.co.uk/2013/09/match-preview-qpr-vs-brighton-hove-albion/



Champions League
AC Milan - Celtic
Milan in problems with injuries 

Ignazio Abate(df 2/0), Mattia De Sciglio(df 0/0), Matias Silvestre(df 0/0), Daniele Bonera(df 0/0) and Giampaolo Pazzini(att 0/0) are out long time , El Shaarawy(att 2/0) , Montolivo(mf 3/0) and Kaka(mf 1/0) are new missings!

[ De Sciglio , Abate , Montolivo , Pazzini(15 goals ,2nd scorer) , El Sharaawy(16 goals top scorer) were regular players last season , Kaka is also big missing for team ]http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24044286
http://www.goal.com/en-us/match/122508/milan-vs-celtic/preview
in last league match Milan play just 2-2 with weak Torino's team



Macedonian CUP
Pelister - Miravci 1 @1.4 (bet365)  FT 2-0 pick WON
http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/fyr-of-macedonia/macedonian-cup/pelister-miravci/r9H5IWxD/
two teams in good relationships. Pelister sent 4-5 young talented players in Miravci to help Miravci for promotion. Cup for Miravci isnt too much important.

Pelister want to go in Europe this season. They will attack top 3 positions in league but also coach said that cup is important for them so they will use here pretty strong squad so we should expect easy win. Mojsov(experienced midifler) is back after injury , best midifler Hristov is questionable , playmaker Rijad Demic and last season top scorer Glavevski are long term injured.

Pelister with 3 new bulgarians are very good and compact team, they should easy won this match vs 2nd league team.


Met.Skopje - Vardar 
this two teams met in league before few weeks and match ends 1-1 (but it should be clear away win)
http://cheguevarapicks.blogspot.com/2013/09/free-pick-from-my-country.html nothing has changed , Metalurg get draw in that match with goal in 90min from free kick by Krstev.

Metalurg will try to find their way in europe through the cup but this will be hard match for them and i see Vardar here like little favourite because experience and quality is on their side.
+ now situation in Vardar is little better , Komiti(the fans) decide to go on matches and support their club (vardar)


Shkendija - Makedonija GP
Shkendija will want to go in europe through the cup!
For Makedonija GP this competition isnt important,for them most important thing is to stay in 1st league!

free pick 17/09

Georgia
Dinamo Tbilsi - Tskhinavali
Dinamo -2ah @1.84 (dafabet)  FT 2-0 pick VOID
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/georgia/umaglesi-liga-2013-2014/dinamo-tbilisi-tskhinvali-fsdWW3A8/#ah;2

Dinamo is strong team from Georgia, they have big stadium and good sposnor. This season they played in Europe League qualification , they were pretty solid but in last qualification round they lost from strong Tottenham , their ambitions this seasons in league are champions league.
all best players from last season: Glishic(df 25/0),Seturidze(df 29/0),Khmaladze(mf 31/9),Merebashvili(mf 32/7),Munoz(att 28/24 top scorer) and Dvali(att 27/20 ,2nd scorer) stay in team!! + they bring some new quality payers Vouho(att 24/11 from AEL),Goga(mf 14/0 from Rapid Buchurest) and some others ...


Tskhinavali in problems,they are new promoted team who start season very very bad 0w-0d-4l .. They are small club with small stadium , their target is to avoid relegation but it will be very hard.

+ for this match they will probably miss 5 important players. out are; Shonia(mf 3/0),Mgeladze(df 3/0),Megrelishvili(df 1/0),Kvekveskiri(mf 4/0),Teqturmanidze(mf 3/0)


Basketball frendly
Mega Vizura - Crvena Zvezda 2 @1.38 (unibet) FT 76-80 pick WON
Mega miss last season's 3 best players , 1 of them left team (new Zvezda's player) ,2 of them are on international duty.
CZ have some new very quality players , one of them ex NBA player!!!

NEW FORUM

CheGuevara made his own (closed) forum.

http://xoceans.createaforum.com/index.php

there is Closed Zone which is unvisible for you , If you are good tipster and have good informations other closed members and me will discuss about that and if we agree you will join in closed zone.

register on forum, open your own thread and start with posting picks.


p.s this is yesterday's big won!! members from closed zone can confirm that , pick was published on 13th september , match was played on 15th september..

monday

Bodo/Glimt - Ham Kam
over 3,5 goals @2.29 (pinnacle) ; 2.40 (sportingbet)  FT 2-0 lost
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/norway/adeccoligaen-2013/bodo-glimt-ham-kam-za8XF7mi/#over-under;2

Bodo already won league,they are sure on 1st place. on home ground they are amazing, 11w-0d-0l (30:5) , they score 3 goals per match on home ground ...
Bodo can be relaxed now ,they won league and today probably this will be open match without defence and with many goals for fans.


today i expect minimum 2 goals from them , now mission will be easier because Ham Kam will be without Overnes(first gk 22/0). On goal today will debut 16 years old Holst ...
http://www.hamkam.no/news/article/1s0dtyr6ill7317oaygksug91a/title/holst-vokter-buret-mot-glimt

Ham Kam also will be probably without Gundersen(att 18/4 ,2nd scorer) because of illnes , while important  Idris(mf 20/3 ,3rd scorer) is suspended!!!
http://www.hamkam.no/latest-news/article/1l5vfdo73fowa1tvb7no6e7hwe/title/hamkam-pa-plass-i-bodo

but still Ham Kam have power in attack because they have Dahle(5 goals) and Adebahr(5 goals) ..

Bodo -1,25ah @1.80 is also good bet but my main bet is over 3,5 goals!



Finland
Lahti - HJK 2 @1.74 (188bet)  FT 0-2 WON

Lahti without two important players Lansitalo(att 11/3) and best player Rafael(att 24/11 top scorer) , their replacement Kemppinen(att 10/0) is also out .. no real striker and no power in attack.

HJK must win if they want to be sure on 1st place. quality on their side,motivation also. In last two matches HJK showed their strenght ( HJK 6-1 Mariehamn , Jaro 1-5 HJK ) , while Jaro 7-1 Lahti ....

huge quality difference i expect easy away win.
HJK -1ah @2.32 (dafabet) is also good bet  FT 0-2 WON

SUNDAY

last two days were terrible for me , i hope today we will have profitable day!

Macedonia
Euromilk - Bregalnica 
euromilk +0,5ah @1.87 (sbobet)  FT 0-3 pick lost
Euromilk is new promoted team, they have only 6 points in 6 matches. Euromilk draw with some strong teams like Rabotnicki (2-2) , Turnovo(1-1) and Vardar(2-2). No important missings in Euromilk , only problem can be attack because Antonio Bujcevski(ls top scorer) left team!
Bregalnica in amazing form. I see bookies made them favourites in this match but Breglanica's staff on press said; It would be very good if we come back from Skopje with a point.
reason for that are missings in their team , 6 first team players are unavailable Илиев(mf 6/1), Андонов(mf 5/0), Ѓоревски(df 5/0) and И.Стојанов(df 5/0) are injured , Stupic(att 4/0) is suspended.

Euromilk will have home field advantage ,  Bregalnica will travel with buss of course they will be in Skopje only 1 hour before match start ...

Vardar - Gostivar 1 @1.3 (betvictor)  FT 4-0 WON
good pick for some combo bet.
Vardar made good signings in last days of transfer window. All new players (Bujcevski,depostovski,grozdanovski,bozinovski ...) can play today.
Gostivar miss few players , they sold best player last season Aksentiev + they play bad away from home.

Austria
Ried - Salzburg 2 @1.70  FT 0-5 WON
both teams in great form.
Ried without Žulj(att 6/2), Ziegl(mf 7/0), Janeczek(df 3/0), Kreuzer(att 3/0), Reiter(mf 0/0)
Salzburg without Vorsah(df 0/0), Lazaro, Schiemer(df 0/0), Gustafsson(gk 0/0) - all of them no important players. If Salzburg win this match they will go on the 1st place,also for 4 days they have match in europe they have to win for their morale.



Greece SuperLiga
Aris - Levadiakos
Aris simply must win this match because they start very very bad 0w-0d-3l. now they have new coach, but ls best player Aganzo(top scorer) is still missing.
Levadiakos is full, they have very suspecious owner who love to fix matches.

Ecuador
Dep.Quito - Barcelona SC
in previous match Dep.Qutio played with youngsters because first team players didnt want to play , today Dep.Quito with strongest possible team! probable line up; Héctor Fabián Carini; Luis Checa, Jorge Guagua, Isaac Mina; Éderson Valencia, Édison Vega, Álex Bolaños, Luis Romero; Álex Colón, Federico Nieto y Luis Congo.
http://www.eluniverso.com/deportes/2013/09/12/nota/1430381/ruben-dario-insua-dice-experiencia-inedita-publico-barcelona


Croatia
Slaven Belupo - Rijeka
quality on away side!!
Slaven without Edson(df 7/1) , Plazonic(df 4/0) , POsinkovic(att 0/0) , Crepulja , Glavina(mf 7/1) and Ozobic.
RIjeka without Leskovic(df 4/1) , Jugovic(mf 3/0) , Zlomislic(mf 7/0) ,Datkovic(mf 0/0) , Brezovic(mf3/0) , Cesarec(att 0/0) , Males(mf 6/0).


Norway
Stromsgodset - Odd 
frendly teams, Odd need points to secure theirself , Stromsgodset need points for title ... no bet.

14/09 picks and infos

Portugal 2 League
Atletico CP - Aves
1/2 (ht/ft) @41.00 (bwin)
2/1 (ht/ft) @41.00 (bwin)http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/portugal/segunda-liga-2013-2014/atletico-cp-aves-lWBzyaw3/#ht-ft;2
minimal stakes
here is analyse from my new closed forum

GL guys!




Iceland
V.Reykjavik - Volsungur over 3,5 goals @1.55 
must win match for Reykjavik , they will win this match 99% because they are simply too strong for Volsungur who will relegate for sure.

this is situation on table

Overall		MP	W	D	L	Goals	Pts
1.	Fjolnir	20	11	4	5	32:23	37
2.	Grindavik	20	11	3	6	42:31	36
3.	Haukar	20	10	6	4	39:28	36
4.	Vikingur Reykjavik	20	10	6	4	38:27	36
5.	Bolungarvik	20	11	1	8	42:37	34
6.	Leiknir Reykjavik	20	9	5	6	33:25	32
7.	KA Akureyri	20	8	5	7	34:28	29
8.	Selfoss	20	8	3	9	42:32	27
9.	Tindastoll	20	6	7	7	28:35	25
10.	Throttur	20	7	2	11	24:31	23
11.	Fjallabyggd	20	4	6	10	22:32	18
12.	Volsungur	20	0	2	18	15:62	2

Reykjavik fighting for top 2 places,they have same number of points with Haukar and Grindavik. next is goal difference all of them have +11 (goal difference) so for V.Reykjavik it is very important to win today with more goals!!
V.Reykjavik -3ah @1.83 (bet365) is also good bet.



Spain
Villareal - Real Madrid 2 @1.73 (sbobet)
i see here one value bet.

True they have same number of points,but Villareal is just new promoted team (true they were long time in primera division but still this odds are too high), ok they start season very good 3w-0d-0l but take a look at their opponents in first three rounds Osasuna , Almeria and Valladolid (all of them average teams ...) , i think that today their good serie will stop.

Real bring Bale. They have amazing players on all positions,this is must win match for them because they cant start with losing points early in season because later they will have problems if Barcelona continue with great results.
Real miss Coentrao,Arbeloa ,Marcelo , Varane and Xabi Alonso but that wont be big problem for them.

fair odds 1.45



Germany lower league
Hankofen - Sonthofen x2 @1.68 
Hankofen is average team with small stadium who have problems with injuries and suspensions. Alschinger(df 10/3),Fellinger(mf 10/0),Richter(mf 8/4),Bilialli(att 10/2) and Schedlbauer(att 10/6) are out , while Lazar(df 9/1),Loffler(df 6/0) and Tolksdorf(mf 9/0) are questionable!


Portugal
Porto - Gil Vicente
Porto has very strong midfield and attack, they score 7 goals in first 3 matches
Gil Vicente miss 3 defenders Halisson(df 3/0), Danielson(df 3/0) and Daniel (df 0/0).

Scotland CUP
Forres Mechanics - Keith x2 @1.50 (bwin)
two teams from same league, Keith is better team!
Forres Mechanics have huge problems with absences for this match, 7-8 players are unavailable plus 1 more is doubtful.
https://twitter.com/themightycans
 2 @2.50 (ladbrokes) is also good bet.


Sweden Allsvenskan
Atvidaberg - Osters
Atvidaberg is full.
OSters without Nadj(first gk 16/0) and important defender Karlsson(df 21/1). Wihlborg(mf 0/0) is long term injured.

Gefle - Brommapojkarna
GEfle without SLundin(df 0/0),Faltesas(mf 23/3) and Svantesson(Att 0/0). Hedval(second gk 8/0) is questionable
Bromm without Blazevic(second gk 0/0),Petrovic(mf 10/0),Djordjic(mf 16/0) and Linder(Mf 14/0)


Greece SuperLiga
Veria - PAOK
Veria is full.
Paok without Lino(df 1/0),Lazar(mf 1/0),Lopez(mf 1/0) and Kace(mf 2/0)

Olympiakos - Xanthi 1 @1.22
Xanthi is Olympiakos's team so here we should see one easy match for Olympiakos who will rotate team because of match in Champions League in Wednesday but they are still much better.
if something goes wrong they have referees.


England League Two
Burton - Portsmouth
Burton without Sharps(df 6/0),MacDonald(mf 4/0) and Kee(Att 2/1)
Portsmouth miss Conolly(att 5/4 top scorer).


Germany 3 LIga
Duisburg - Darmstad
Duisburg have big financial problems before start of season, i wrote about that before 2 months when season start , all key players left club ... but with all those problems Duisburg start season very solid , for this match they will miss Ratajczak(first gk 6/0),Wissing(df 0/0) and Tsourakis(att 4/1)
Darmstad without important missings.

13/09/2013 friday infos

Finland
Honka - Rovaniemi 1 @1.58 (188bet) ; 1.60 (wiliamhil)
Honka is fighting for 1st place,they have to win this match if they want to stay in race for 1st place , today Honka will be without Rexhepi(df 8/0) and Kabashi(mf 0/0) both are long term injured

Rovaniemi play for nothing,they cant relegate. Today they can go relaxed to this match .. Rovaniemi have problems with absences because Maanoja(first gk 22/0),Turcios(mf 19/0),Misonvaara(mf 10/0), Tystala(mf 0/0)Otaru(mf 23/3 ,2nd scorer) and Kokko(att 18/6 top scorer) are unavailable.

before start of this season Honka gave one very good player to Rovaniemi for FREE  that is Nicholas Otaru [he is unavailable today]
motivation and quality is on home side + home field advantage .. I expect home win here.


France National
Amiens - Colomiers
Amiens with strong squad. Le groupe d’Amiens : L’Hostis, Diop - Bourbier, Seka, Lybohy, Vignaud, El Hajjam - Pouye, Paul, Burel, Youssouf, Sanches, Marega - Tehoué, Koubemba, Boukaka, Youla.
http://www.amiensfootball.com/liste-des-actualites/page-article/article/national-amiens-sc-colomiers.html



GFC Ajaccio - Vannes
Vannes without Bédénik(first gk 0/0 ,ls regular player), Reydel(df 0/0), Gaffory(att 0/0 , ls regular player), Massengo(mf 4/0), Argelier(df 0/0), Youga, Pelé, Ridjali(mf 1/0). also they sold last season two best player Youssouf and Nabouhan!


Ireland FAI Cup
Fin Harps - Drogheda 2 @1.50
Fin harps mid-table team from 2nd league , Drogheda mid-table team from 1st league!
Finn Harps in bad form + without McCarron(att 15/8 top scorer) . McNulty(df 0/0) , McMonagle(df 17/2) , Bonner(mf 10/0) and McHugh(att 22/7 ,2nd scorer) are questionable


Brazil Serie A
Atletico MG - Coritiba 1 @1.65  FT 3-0 won.
i know it is huuge public bet but i also take this bet because there are lot of reasons to take it.

here is my analyse from MY NEW FORUM (many strong and local tipsters are IN!! later i will publish link)



Atletico MG without Cesar(df 11/0),Gilberto Silva(mf 6/0),Carlos Cesar(df 1/0),Donizete(mf 4/0),Datolo(mf 3/1) and Tardelli(att 10/2). Jo(att 8/0) and Rocha(df 13/0) are on international duty.

Coritiba without: injured: Almeida(df 15/0),Ferraz(df 18/0),Urso(mf 12/0),Manoel(mf 4/0),Deivid(att 11/4 ,2nd scorer),Lucas(att 0/0),Aquino(att 1/0),Geraldo(att 12/1). Maiquinho(att 1/0) is suspended,while best player Alex(mf 14/9 top scorer) will be rested
Almeida and Ferraz are very important in defence for Coritiba , Deivid is first choice striker , Alex is best player playmaker without him Coritiba is other team.



Finland Veikkausliiga
Inter Turku - Lahti
Inter without Diallo(df 12/1),Turunen(df 6/0) and Parvainen(att 3/0).
Lahti without Lansitalo(att 11/3),Kemppinen(att 10/0),Skofelt(gk 0/0),Grefberg(mf 0/0),Nganbe(mf 8/2) and best player Rafael(att 24/11 top scorer)


China
Guangzhou -  Shangai Shenhua
Guangzhou without Feng Renlian(mf 7/0) and Qin Sheng(mf 9/0).
Shangai without Xu Liang(mf 12/2 key midifelr)