free pick 12/11

Brazil Serie B
Paysandu PA - Palmerias
pick: Paysandu +0ah @2.45 (pinnacle) ; 2.38 (bet365)
http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/brazil/serie-b/paysandu-pa-palmeiras/6upBdCnR/

ok i understand Palmerias is 1st on table , they are best team in league , if they want they can easy won this match but will they want that !? that is the question ...

4 rounds till end of season Palmerias is sure on 1st place they wont lose it i am 100% sure about that .. while hosts Paysandu are in dangerous zone and they desperate need win today!

here is the table

Overall		MP	W	D	L	Goals	Pts
1.	Palmeiras	34	22	7	5	64:25	73
2.	Chapecoense-SC	34	17	11	6	55:29	62
3.	Sport Recife	34	18	2	14	58:52	56
4.	Icasa	34	16	5	13	45:48	53
5.	Avai	34	15	8	11	47:42	53
6.	Ceará	34	14	11	9	56:42	53
7.	Figueirense	34	16	4	14	56:49	52
8.	Joinville	34	15	7	12	50:39	52
9.	America MG	34	13	13	8	45:38	52
10.	Parana	34	14	9	11	49:33	51
11.	Boa	34	12	11	11	30:39	47
12.	Oeste	34	11	10	13	37:49	43
13.	Bragantino	34	12	6	16	33:39	42
14.	Guaratingueta	34	11	8	15	38:45	41
15.	America RN	34	10	11	13	41:50	41
16.	ABC	34	11	6	17	40:55	39
17.	Paysandu PA	34	9	9	16	38:53	36
18.	Atletico GO	34	9	8	17	34:45	35
19.	Sao Caetano	34	8	8	18	40:53	32
20.	ASA	34	9	2	23	37:68	29

(last 4 teams relegate , top 4 teams promote)

main reason for this bet are missings in away team and their previous meetings

last their match was 2/1 with goal in 95min link
highlights: video click to see , 1st Paysandu goal was clearly defencive mistake and bad position on defence players (they could easy make offside trap ..)
take a look at Palmerias goal for 1:2 , what was gk doing? defencive player didnt jump..
goal for 3:2 , goalkeeper was flying in space :D

-- in 2005 they also have played 2/1 http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/brazil/serie-a-2005/matchdetails.php?matchid=jyScA4lF


for this match Palmerias is without some very important players , important striker Kleber(att 2/1) and Dybal(mf 0/0) are long term injured .. Leandro(att 28/11 ,2nd scorer) is suspended , key offencive midifler Valdivia(mf 17/3) is with NT , Wesley(mf 28/7 ,3rd scorer),Vinicius(att 23/5 ,4th scorer),Luis Felipe(df 23/1),VIlson(df 9/2),Mendieta(mf 17/4) and Charles(mf 23/2) are also injred!!

so totally they miss 10 players.


Paysandu with only 1 important missing , Eduardo Ramos(mf 31/4) suspended... long term injured are Ze Carlos(first gk 7/0),Tallys(mf 3/0),Capanema(mf 9/0) and Billy(mf 4/0) ....


GL